In 2026, Brazil's regulated betting market moved from the set-up phase into the pressure phase: the tax burden on operators' revenue rose under Complementary Law No. 224 of December 26, 2025, advertising gained standardized warnings and stricter self-regulation, enforcement against illegal sites scaled up, and the number of companies seeking to enter fell sharply. In the firm's reading, these five shifts point in the same direction: the market will reward those who treat compliance as part of the operation, not as an entry cost already paid.
This piece is an insight: for each topic, we separate verifiable fact, with sources listed at the end, from Oliveira & Jacobovitz's reading of the coming months. That reading is technical opinion, not a guaranteed forecast.
1. The tax on GGR rises through 2028
The fact. Law No. 14,790/2023 set a 12% rate on gross gaming revenue, or GGR. Complementary Law No. 224/2025 established a gradual increase: 13% in 2026, 14% in 2027 and 15% in 2028, effective from January 1, 2026. The same law created joint liability for financial and payment institutions that, after formal notice from the competent federal authority, keep allowing transactions with unauthorized operators, and for anyone who disseminates advertising for illegal betting sites.
Our reading. The increase is phased precisely so it can be planned for, and that is where many operators will slip: business models built on 12% need to be redone now, not in 2028. We also expect tougher contracts with payment providers and media partners, because joint liability turns the supplier into an indirect monitor of the operator's standing.
2. Standardized warnings change the creative
The fact. SPA/MF Ordinance No. 1,964 of July 3, 2026, published in the Federal Official Gazette on July 10, standardized the mandatory warnings in fixed-odds betting advertising, effective since July 17, 2026. The three permitted messages begin with Ministério da Fazenda adverte (the Ministry of Finance warns) and continue with: betting can cause addiction; betting makes you lose money; or betting is not an investment. The warning must be horizontal, clear, legible and take up at least 10% of the length or size of the ad.
Our reading. In short formats such as stories, programmatic banners and spots during sports broadcasts, reserving 10% of the space for the warning changes the whole piece. We expect marketing teams to start designing the creative around the warning, not the other way round, and legal to join the workflow before production, not on the eve of launch.
3. Self-regulation and the ad supply chain tighten
The fact. On August 27, 2026, CONAR, Brazil's advertising self-regulation council, approved an update to Annex X of the Brazilian Advertising Self-Regulation Code, in force 30 days after publication. The text restricts appearances in ads to people who are and look over 21, prohibits content appealing to children and adolescents, especially humanized animals, gives greater prominence to warnings, and encourages regular ad monitoring systems and an accreditation program for influencers and affiliates. CONAR reports having opened more than 160 complaints involving betting advertising. In parallel, Interministerial Ordinance MF/SECOM/MJSP No. 73 of July 10, 2026 extended duties to everyone involved in dissemination, from agencies to influencers and platforms: whoever runs the ad must check in advance that the operator is authorized, promoting brands, apps and profiles of unauthorized platforms is prohibited, and consumer protection bodies such as Senacon may act against operators and agents in the chain.
Our reading. Advertising risk no longer belongs to the operator alone. Agencies, media outlets, platforms and influencers are likely to demand proof of authorization, compliance clauses and prior approval of content, which should reduce informality in affiliate programs. Anyone running a large affiliate base without contracts, monitoring or an evidence trail carries the sector's greatest exposure today.
4. Enforcement against the illegal market scales up
The fact. Data from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting obtained under the Access to Information Law and published on September 11, 2026 show 66,482 illegal site domains blocked between January 15, 2025 and September 2, 2026, 1,511 social media profiles taken down between January 2025 and August 2026, and about R$ 18 million in fines imposed, with 103 administrative sanctioning proceedings pending or closed.
Our reading. Blocking illegal sites is good news for those who invested in authorization, but the same enforcement structure also looks at authorized operators. The sanctioning proceedings show that the SPA already has procedure, precedent and adjudication capacity. For an authorized operator, the 2026 question is not whether it will be inspected, but whether it can show, with documents, that its policies work.
5. The market consolidates
The fact. According to a report published in June 2026 by the BNLData portal, based on market and industry association data, Brazil had 187 licensed brands, and ten companies held more than 67% of market share; the same report noted three merger filings from the sector received by CADE, Brazil's antitrust authority. Ministry of Finance data published by the same portal in July 2026 show only six authorization requests in the first half of the year, a 97% drop from the 227 requests in the second half of 2024, with 85 companies authorized to operate.
Our reading. With few new entrants and high fixed costs, the natural path is the purchase, merger and sale of brands and of structures that are already authorized. In these deals, regulatory due diligence becomes the center of the negotiation: sanction history, advertising compliance, affiliate contracts, AML/CFT and tax standing weigh on price and warranties. Concentration deals may also require CADE filing, which must be built into the deal timeline.
What to do in the coming months
- Redo the margin model with the 13%, 14% and 15% GGR curve through 2028.
- Audit live ads against the warnings required since July 17, 2026 and the Annex X update.
- Review contracts with affiliates, agencies, media outlets and payment providers, with compliance clauses and audit rights.
- Organize evidence that AML/CFT, KYC and responsible gambling policies actually work, with a possible sanctioning proceeding in mind.
- If you are considering buying, selling or partnering, prepare the regulatory documentation before opening the data room.
How the firm can help
Oliveira & Jacobovitz follows the betting sector on the regulatory, tax, contractual and advertising fronts. We support operators, agencies, affiliates and investors in reading new rules, reviewing campaigns and contracts, preparing for inspections, defending administrative sanctioning proceedings and conducting due diligence on deals in the sector. Each case is assessed individually, with no promise of outcome, focused on reducing exposure and sustaining the operation over time.
